On some aspects of second order response surface methodology : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of M. Sc. in Mathematics at Massey University

A unified development of the theoretical basis of response surface methodology, particularly as it applies to second order response surfaces, is presented. A rigorous justification of the various tests of hypothesis usually used is given, as well as a convenient means of making tests on whole factors, rather than on terms of a given degree, as is customary at present. Finally, the superimposition of some elementary classification designs on a response surface design is considered

Examining the Link Between Price Regulation, Reimportation, and Pharmaceutical R&D Investment

This paper examines the link between price regulation and pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) investment. I identify two mechanisms through which price regulation (or re-importation) may exert an influence on R&D: an expected-profit effect and a cash-flow effect. Using established models of the determinants of pharmaceutical R&D, I exploit a unique fact to quantify firm exposure to pharmaceutical price regulation: relative to the rest of the world, the U.S. pharmaceutical market is largely unregulated with respect to price. Using this fact within the context of a system of quasi-structural equations, I simulate how a new policy regulating pharmaceutical prices in the U.S. will affect R&D investment. I find that such a policy will lead to a decline in industry R&D by between 23.4 and 32.7 percent.This prediction, however, is accompanied by several caveats.Moreover, it says nothing about the implications for social welfare; therefore, these issues are also discussed. This paper is forthcoming in Health Economics.Health and Safety, Technology and Industry, Regulatory Reform

Testing for Ownership Mix Efficiency: The Case of the Nursing Home Industry

This paper offers an empirical test of ownership mix efficiency in the U.S. nursing home industry. We test to compare the benefits of quality assurance with the costs from the attenuation of property rights that result from an increased presence of nonprofit organizations. The empirical results suggest that too few nonprofit nursing homes may exist in the typical market area of the U.S. The policy implication is that more quality of care per dollar might be obtained by attracting a greater percentage of nonprofit nursing homes into most market areas.

Cosmic ray positron research and silicon track detector development

The purpose was to conduct research on: (1) position sensing detector systems, particularly those based upon silicon detectors, for use in future balloon and satellite experiments; and (2) positrons, electrons, proton, anti-protons, and helium particles as measured by the NASA NMSU Balloon Magnet Facility

European Pharmaceutical Price Regulation, Firm Profitability, and R&D Spending

EU countries closely regulate pharmaceutical prices whereas the U.S. does not. This paper shows how price constraints affect the profitability, stock returns, and R&D spending of EU and U.S. firms. Compared to EU firms, U.S. firms are more profitable, earn higher stock returns, and spend more on research and development (R&D). Some differences have increased over time. In 1986, EU pharmaceutical R&D exceeded U.S. R&D by about 24 percent, but by 2004, EU R&D trailed U.S. R&D by about 15 percent. During these 19 years, U.S. R&D spending grew at a real annual compound rate of 8.8 percent, while EU R&D spending grew at a real 5.4 percent rate. Results show that EU consumers enjoyed much lower pharmaceutical price inflation, however, at a cost of 46 fewer new medicines introduced by EU firms and 1680 fewer EU research jobs.

The Cost of US Pharmaceutical Price Reductions: A Financial Simulation Model of R&D Decisions

Previous empirical studies that have examined the links between pharmaceutical price controls, profits, cash flows, and investment in research and development (R&D) have been largely based on retrospective statistical analyses of firm- and/or industry-level data. These studies, which have contributed numerous insights and findings to the literature, relied upon ad hoc reduced-form model specifications. In the current paper we take a very different approach: a prospective micro-simulation approach. Using Monte Carlo techniques we model how future price controls in the U.S. will impact early-stage product development decisions in the pharmaceutical industry. This is done within the context of a net present value (NPV) framework that appropriately reflects the uncertainty associated with R&D project technical success, development costs, and future revenues. Using partial-information estimators calibrated with the most contemporary clinical and economic data available, we demonstrate how pharmaceutical price controls will significantly diminish the incentives to undertake early-stage R&D investment. For example, we estimate that cutting prices by 40 to 50 percent in the U.S. will lead to between 30 to 60 percent fewer R&D projects being undertaken (in early-stage development). Given the recent legislative efforts to control prescription drug prices in the U.S., and the likelihood that price controls will prevail as a result, it is important to better understand the firm response to such a regulatory change.

Studies of highway skew slab-bridges with curbs. A report of an investigation conducted by the Engineering Experiment Station, University of Illinois,

On t.p. of v. 2: A report of an investigation conducted by the Engineering Experiment Station, University of Illinois, in cooperation with the Bureau of Public Roads, U. S. Dept. of Commerce and the Division of Highways, State of Illinois.Bibliographical footnotes.pt. 1. Results of analyses, by V. P. Jensen and J. W. Allen.--pt. 2. Laboratory research, by M. L. Gossard [and others

Explaining Pharmaceutical R&D Growth Rates at the Industry Level: New Perspectives and Insights

This paper uses aggregate data for the major pharmaceutical companies in the U.S. to study the rate of growth in pharmaceutical R&D intensity over the period from 1952 to 2001. The theoretical model argues and the empirical findings suggest that pharmaceutical R&D spending increases with real drug prices, after holding constant other determinants of R&D. Simulations based on our multiple regression model indicate that the capitalized value of pharmaceutical R&D spending would have been about 30 percent lower if the federal government had limited the rate of growth in drug price increases to the rate of growth in the general consumer price index during the period 1980 to 2001. Moreover, a drug price control regime would have resulted in 330 to 365 fewer new drugs brought to the global market during that same time period.Health and Safety

The Future of Drug Development: The Economics of Pharmacogenomics

This paper models how the evolving field of pharmacogenomics (PG), which is the science of using genomic markers to predict drug response, may impact drug development times, attrition rates, costs, and the future returns to research and development (R&D). While there still remains an abundance of uncertainty around how PG will impact the future landscape of pharmaceutical and biological R&D, we identify several likely outcomes. We conclude PG has the potential to significantly reduce both expected drug development costs (via higher probabilities of technical success, shorter clinical development times, and smaller clinical trials) and returns. The impact PG has on expected returns is partially mitigated by higher equilibrium prices, expedited product launches, and longer effective patent lives. Our conclusions are, of course, accompanied by numerous caveats.